Bitcoin Funding Rate Hits Zero: Crypto Bull Run Ahead?

Crypto analyst and macro research specialist Alex Adler Jr. has spotted something interesting in Bitcoin’s market data. In his latest post on X, he highlights a key indicator that has repeatedly signaled major price moves – Bitcoin’s average funding rate across Binance, Bybit, and OKX has dropped to zero.

Why does this matter? Because every time this has happened in the current cycle, Bitcoin has taken off on a strong rally. Could we be on the verge of another breakout? The data suggests it might not be just a coincidence.

Let’s break it down.

What Does the Data Show?

Adler shared a chart titled “BTC: Futures Perpetual Funding Rate (7D-SMA),” showing that the average funding rate across these exchanges has now hit zero. This rate measures the balance between long (bullish) and short (bearish) positions in Bitcoin futures trading.

Here’s how it works:

• A positive funding rate means more traders expect Bitcoin’s price to rise (bullish sentiment).
• A negative funding rate means more traders are betting on a price drop (bearish sentiment).
• A zero funding rate signals a balance between long and short positions, meaning market uncertainty.

According to Adler, in previous cases, Bitcoin has gained strong momentum soon after the funding rate hit zero.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Movement

Bitcoin started the month at $102,417.80 but saw a 5.67% decline between February 1 and 5. From February 6 to 9, it traded within a narrow range of $96,615 to $96,440, struggling to find direction. Then, on February 10, Bitcoin broke out of this range with a bullish push.

Over the past 24 hours, BTC has risen 0.9%, but it has yet to fully recover from its early February correction. Over the past 14 days, Bitcoin is still down 4.3%.

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Will Bitcoin Surge Again?

With the funding rate at zero and past trends suggesting a bullish outcome, Bitcoin could be setting up for another rally. If history repeats itself, traders might soon see a strong upward move. Investors will be watching closely to see if this key indicator proves reliable once again.

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A neutral funding rate has sparked rallies before – will this time be any different? Let’s wait and see.

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